Rates Avoid More Dire Outcomes; Must be China; CPI is the new NFP (Sometimes)

Mortgage rates caught a break yesterday by moving lower for the first time this week. They arguably caught a break again today by not moving any higher than they did. Underlying bond markets (which drive mortgage rate changes) were rocked this morning by stronger inflation data. The important Consumer Price Index (CPI) was expected to hold steady at the same low levels that have persisted since the middle of 2017. The modest uptick in inflation sent bond yields higher and resulted in most mortgage lenders putting out noticeably higher rates this morning. Lenders don't like to put out more than one rate sheet per day if they can help it, but if markets move enough, they will "reprice." After the initial trauma, bond markets began a trend of improvement that ultimately resulted in widespread

from
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2018/1/12/3176

Mortgage Rates Catch a Break; Growing Concerns Over VA Churning; New Home Sales Defy Holiday Lull

Mortgage rates caught a break today, moving lower for the first time this week and pushing back from the highest levels since early July 2017. Like yesterday, strong demand at a Treasury auction helped US bond markets, but notably, only the longer-term maturities (10yr and 30yr bonds were the big winners). Fortunately, the bonds that underlie mortgage rates tend to correlate well with longer-term Treasuries. Economic data also played a role with a weaker reading on inflation at the producer level. Tomorrow brings the much more important reading on consumer-level inflation (via the Consumer Price Index or CPI). If CPI is similarly weak, it could steel the resolve on the part of rates to hold to recent ceilings--potentially providing a base of operations for borrowers to consider a strategy other

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2018/1/11/3173

Rates Stay at 6-Mo High; Builders Face Digital Reality; Mortgage Apps Heat Up

Mortgage rates were much higher this morning, bringing them to new 6-month highs (a dubious distinction also accomplished yesterday). Unlike yesterday, there were good and bad moments today. Bond markets (which underlie rate movement) were already starting to show signs of support this morning. Early this afternoon, a scheduled auction of 10yr Treasury Notes was met with strong demand. When demand for a bond rises relative to supply, rates fall. Mortgage rates aren't based directly on 10yr Treasuries, but there is a strong correlation between the two. The 10yr serves as an important benchmark for any longer-term interest rate in the US, so the strong auction suggested rates may attempt to find a ceiling here after a rocky start to the year. The staying power of any such ceiling remains to be

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2018/1/10/3171

Government Lending Standards Tighter; Hurricanes Skewing Delinquency; Rates Highest in 6 Months

A decline in each of its four component indices, especially the one measuring the availability of government-backed loans, drove overall mortgage credit availability lower in December according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The group's Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) dropped by 1.8 percent to a reading of 179.2. A decline in the MCAI indicates tightening lending standards while an increase is indicative of loosening credit. The component measuring credit available in the government sector was down 2.6 percent in December. The Government MCAI has been trending down for most of 2017 after peaking at about 450. The index now appears, (MBA provides only percentages and graphs for the components, not numbers) to be around 430. The Conventional MCAI was also down, by 0.7 percent

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2018/1/9/3169

Tax Law HELOC and Sentiment Impact; Rates Back Near Recent Highs

Black Knight's Mortgage Monitor for November notes that the equation for tapping the growing pool of homeowner equity could shift because of the new rules governing the mortgage interest deduction (MID) in the newly passed tax law. That equity continues to grow as home prices rise, with Black Knight's Home Price Index posting another increase , 0.29 percent increase in November, the strongest appreciation for any November since 2005, and an annual increase of 6.48 percent, the largest since early 2014. Black Knight's reported gain, incidentally, was the smallest of the four reported by indexes tracked by MortgageNewsDaily. The other three posted monthly gains for November ranging from 0.5 to 2.0 percent. Black Knight said the growth rate in its annual index increased by more than 30 basis points

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2018/1/8/3167

Rates Avoid More Dire Outcomes; Must be China; CPI is the new NFP (Sometimes)

Mortgage rates caught a break yesterday by moving lower for the first time this week. They arguably caught a break again today by not moving any higher than they did. Underlying bond markets (which drive mortgage rate changes) were rocked this morning by stronger inflation data. The important Consumer Price Index (CPI) was expected to hold steady at the same low levels that have persisted since the middle of 2017. The modest uptick in inflation sent bond yields higher and resulted in most mortgage lenders putting out noticeably higher rates this morning. Lenders don't like to put out more than one rate sheet per day if they can help it, but if markets move enough, they will "reprice." After the initial trauma, bond markets began a trend of improvement that ultimately resulted in widespread

from
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2018/1/12/3176

Mortgage Rates Catch a Break; Growing Concerns Over VA Churning; New Home Sales Defy Holiday Lull

Mortgage rates caught a break today, moving lower for the first time this week and pushing back from the highest levels since early July 2017. Like yesterday, strong demand at a Treasury auction helped US bond markets, but notably, only the longer-term maturities (10yr and 30yr bonds were the big winners). Fortunately, the bonds that underlie mortgage rates tend to correlate well with longer-term Treasuries. Economic data also played a role with a weaker reading on inflation at the producer level. Tomorrow brings the much more important reading on consumer-level inflation (via the Consumer Price Index or CPI). If CPI is similarly weak, it could steel the resolve on the part of rates to hold to recent ceilings--potentially providing a base of operations for borrowers to consider a strategy other

from
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2018/1/11/3173