Jason Agee's Blog

Thursday, February 1, 2018

Mortgage Rates in Big Trouble; Health Care Construction a Big Winner; Hollow Victory For CFPB?

Mortgage rates are in big trouble . Whatever you've read about the current spike so far today, you'll probably need to double it after today's bond market movement. Why? Because most news stories on rates haven't yet accounted for today's bond market movement! The most prevalent source material is Freddie Mac's weekly survey which generally tracks lender quotes from Monday and Tuesday of any given week. The survey showed a 0.07% jump week over week. The actual jump is more like 0.12-.13. The average lender is now quoting 4.375% on top tier 30yr fixed scenarios. More than a few are already up to 4.5%. Lenders quoting rates much lower are likely doing so at the expense of profit margins and that could create sustainability concerns. Moreover, unless you're interacting directly with someone who

from
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2018/2/1/3205

NAR Warns on Pending Sales; Rates Dent Mortgage Apps; Robots and Underwriting; Fed Announcement

Pending home sales finished off the year in a more upbeat tune. Although the December gain in sales, reported on Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) was a slim one, it made three consecutive monthly gains for the leading indicator. NAR warned however that it expects existing home sales and price growth to moderate , primarily because of the expected impact of the new tax laws in high cost housing markets. NAR's Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) rose 0.5 percent to 110.1 in December, from an upwardly revised (from 109.5) 109.6 in November. The index is now 0.5 percent higher than in December 2016. It was the highest level for the PHSI since it hit 111.3 last March. Analysts nailed the number with their forecasts. Those polled by Econoday predicted increases in the range

from
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2018/1/31/3203

Guess Who's Pushing Homeownership Higher; Home Price Deja Vu; Rates Still on Scary Ride

The national homeownership rate ticked up slightly in the fourth quarter of 2017, but the U.S. Census Bureau said the change, from 63.9 percent in the third quarter to 64.2 percent in the fourth was not statistically different. The rate in the fourth quarter of 2016 was 63.7 percent. The rate has improved only slightly since reaching a historic low of 62.9 percent in the second quarter of 2016. Homeownership in the U.S. peaked at 69.2 percent in 2004. The rate was, as usual, highest among the oldest groups of Americans. Those 55 to 64 years old had a rate of 75.3 percent, up 0.5 point from a year earlier while 79.2 percent of those over age 65 were homeowners, a fraction lower than in the previous fourth quarter. The year-over-year increase was greatest among the much-watched Millennials ,

from
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2018/1/30/3201

Mortgage Rates Surge to Highest Levels in More Than 3 Years; 67-Month Winning Streak For Home Prices

Mortgage rates are in trouble . This will come as no surprise to regular readers. For the past few weeks, rates made several successive runs up to the highest levels in more than 9 months. It was really only the spring of 2017 that stood in the way of rates being the highest since early 2014. After Friday marked another "highest in 9 months" day, it would only have taken a moderate movement to break into the "3+ year" territory. The move ended up being even bigger. From a week and a half ago, most borrowers are now looking at another eighth of a percentage point higher in rate. In total, rates are up the better part of half a point since December 15th. This marks the only time rates have risen this much without having been at long term lows in the past year. For example, late 2010, mid-2013

from
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2018/1/29/3199

Cautionary Tale For Mortgage Rates; More Loans, More Delinquencies for Freddie; FHA/VA Updates

Mortgage rates moved higher today, bringing them up to yet another 9-month high. Underlying bond markets ended the week in roughly the same shape as last week, but the mortgage bond market has been volatile over the past 3 days. That volatility makes it more expensive for lenders to guarantee any given rate, thus accounting for the new highs this week. It's very important to note that there were two examples of reasonably positive movement in rates this week (Tue/Thu) and that both of them were quickly eclipsed and replaced with new long-term highs on the following day. It's for this reason that I've continued to advocate a defensive stance despite periodic victories. Such victories are bound to occur in any interest rate environment. We need to see bigger victories and more of them if it's

from
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2018/1/26/3197

Mortgage Rates in Big Trouble; Health Care Construction a Big Winner; Hollow Victory For CFPB?

High-end row house project under way in Herron-Morton neighborhood

Litz & Eaton have started building 13 row homes, topping out at $800,000 each, in an area where pricey custom jobs are popping up with more frequency.

from
https://www.ibj.com/blogs/3-property-lines/post/67335-6m-residential-project-under-way-in-re-emerging-herron-morton-neighborhood