Rates Steady Despite Strong Jobs Data. Here's Why; Shift Out of FHA; Ginnie Record

Mortgage rates held steady today, despite a key report from the Labor Department showing stronger-than-expected job creation in February. Typically, a strong jobs report is bad for rates. This one likely would have been bad as well, but markets got advance notice from another report earlier in the week. Remember Wednesday's ADP data? It thoroughly trounced the 190k expectation, coming in at 298k. Given that the ADP data attempts to track/predict the Labor Department's report, rates were able to rise preemptively before this morning's data ever came out. With the official numbers not quite as stellar as ADP suggested, bond markets (and thus, mortgage rates) were able to hold their ground. While ground-holding is good, the ground itself could be better. Rates remain at 2017's highs with the average

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/3/10/2683

Disappearing Jumbos; Rates Farther Into 2017 Highs; 1 Million Homes Back Above Waterline

Mortgage rates rose again today, bringing them further into the highest levels of the year. If there's anything redeeming about the move it's that it wasn't nearly as abrupt as yesterday. In fact, several lenders were fairly close to yesterday's offerings. The average lender is back up to 4.375% on top tier conventional 30yr fixed quotes. A few remain at 4.25% and some are already up to 4.5%. Bond markets (which underlie rate movement) are feeling pretty pessimistic right now, primarily due to the recent and rapid increase in Fed rate hike expectations. Beyond that, things like economic data have the potential to drive nails deeper into coffins. We saw stark evidence of that with Yesterday's ADP employment numbers (much stronger than expected) fueling speculation for a similarly strong performance

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/3/9/2681

Housing Confidence Surges, but Home Price Gains Ebb; More Contraction Ahead?

Home prices measured by CoreLogic's Home Price Index (HPI) for January ended a six-month long pattern of accelerating annual gains. The increases also slowed on a month-over-month basis. The company said that nationally prices were up 6.9 percent from January 2016 to January 2017. The HPI had risen by a minimum of 0.1 percent more every month than it had in the preceding month since May, increasing from 5.7 percent that month and posting a 7.2 percent annual gain in December. Home prices increased from December to January by 0.7 percent. Month-over-month appreciation had been at 1.1 percent for each of the previous six months before slipping to an 0.8 percent gain from November to December. "With lean for-sale inventories and low rental vacancy rates, many markets have seen housing prices outpace

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/3/7/2677

Mortgage Rate Losing Streak Pauses; 2016 Originations Set 4-Year High

After moving higher for 5 days in a row, mortgage rates finally moved a bit lower today. The improvement was fairly small, however, merely undoing Friday's modest move higher. Bonds markets (which dictate rates) continue to price in extremely high chances of a Fed rate hike next week. That wasn't entirely the case before the recent 5-day losing streak. In fact, the odds of a Fed rate hike more than doubled last week based on market metrics. This doesn't mean the Fed was half as likely to hike 2 weeks ago. Rather, it has more to do with the fact that financial markets had been sort of complacent about adjusting bond prices to reflect the probability. Complacency ended early last week and bond yields (and thus "rates") quickly adjusted to their new, higher reality). In other words, the past week

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/3/6/2675

Rates Rise For 5th Straight Day; More Homeowners Cashing in on New Housing Wealthy; Record Bank Earnings

Mortgage rates rose by the smallest amount of the week today, but they rose nonetheless. That caps a streak of 5 straight days spent moving in an unfriendly direction. The caveat is that we continue to deal with an overall range that is generally very narrow. Between last week's lows and this week's highs, there's scarcely more than .125% in rate. And the biggest single-day movement (Wednesday) only saw an effective rate increase of 0.07%. Each of the remaining days was 0.03% or less. That big move on Wednesday was due to comments from NY Fed President Dudley on the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in March. Markets have remained somewhat tuned in to Fed speakers since then, but even when Yellen today confirmed that a March hike was likely, there wasn't much of a response. Bottom line , financial

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/3/3/2671

Market Shifts May Promote Mortgage Fraud; Rates and Volatility Higher This Week; Caliber Deal

The shifting of the mortgage market toward more purchases as well as declining origination volumes are expected to boost the incidence of mortgage fraud in 2017 according to CoreLogic. The company's Fraud Index is already on the move. It shot up to 122 in the fourth quarter of 2016, matching its highest level in 2014. The jump came even though there was more than a 20 percent drop in mortgage applications at about the same time. CoreLogic's Bridget Berg, senior director of Fraud Solutions Strategy, writes in the company's blog that mortgage fraud has been at a relatively low level since strong lending controls were put in place in response to the financial crisis. However, she says emerging trends may change that, raising the level of risk significantly. She sees the long-term increase in risk

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/3/2/2669

New Owners' Top Regrets; Rate Spike Driven by Fed, Not Trump; Inflation Baked In?

Some homeowners aren't breaking out the champagne after they've closed on their new home purchase. Nearly half of the homeowners in a recent NerdWallet survey said that they would take a different approach toward buying if they were going through the process again. The personal finance website polled 2,241 adults in January. "One thing I'd advise — and no buyer really follows it — is to shop around and do more research not just for your loan but for the home," said Tim Manni, who covers mortgages at NerdWallet. Younger homeowners — millennials and Gen Xers — expressed the most buyer's remorse after closing on a new dwelling. About 3 in 5 of these participants said they had regrets throughout the shopping and mortgage process. What they lament the most is that they should

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/3/1/2667