Mortgage Rate Losing Streak Pauses; 2016 Originations Set 4-Year High

After moving higher for 5 days in a row, mortgage rates finally moved a bit lower today. The improvement was fairly small, however, merely undoing Friday's modest move higher. Bonds markets (which dictate rates) continue to price in extremely high chances of a Fed rate hike next week. That wasn't entirely the case before the recent 5-day losing streak. In fact, the odds of a Fed rate hike more than doubled last week based on market metrics. This doesn't mean the Fed was half as likely to hike 2 weeks ago. Rather, it has more to do with the fact that financial markets had been sort of complacent about adjusting bond prices to reflect the probability. Complacency ended early last week and bond yields (and thus "rates") quickly adjusted to their new, higher reality). In other words, the past week

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/3/6/2675

Rates Rise For 5th Straight Day; More Homeowners Cashing in on New Housing Wealthy; Record Bank Earnings

Mortgage rates rose by the smallest amount of the week today, but they rose nonetheless. That caps a streak of 5 straight days spent moving in an unfriendly direction. The caveat is that we continue to deal with an overall range that is generally very narrow. Between last week's lows and this week's highs, there's scarcely more than .125% in rate. And the biggest single-day movement (Wednesday) only saw an effective rate increase of 0.07%. Each of the remaining days was 0.03% or less. That big move on Wednesday was due to comments from NY Fed President Dudley on the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in March. Markets have remained somewhat tuned in to Fed speakers since then, but even when Yellen today confirmed that a March hike was likely, there wasn't much of a response. Bottom line , financial

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/3/3/2671

Market Shifts May Promote Mortgage Fraud; Rates and Volatility Higher This Week; Caliber Deal

The shifting of the mortgage market toward more purchases as well as declining origination volumes are expected to boost the incidence of mortgage fraud in 2017 according to CoreLogic. The company's Fraud Index is already on the move. It shot up to 122 in the fourth quarter of 2016, matching its highest level in 2014. The jump came even though there was more than a 20 percent drop in mortgage applications at about the same time. CoreLogic's Bridget Berg, senior director of Fraud Solutions Strategy, writes in the company's blog that mortgage fraud has been at a relatively low level since strong lending controls were put in place in response to the financial crisis. However, she says emerging trends may change that, raising the level of risk significantly. She sees the long-term increase in risk

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/3/2/2669

New Owners' Top Regrets; Rate Spike Driven by Fed, Not Trump; Inflation Baked In?

Some homeowners aren't breaking out the champagne after they've closed on their new home purchase. Nearly half of the homeowners in a recent NerdWallet survey said that they would take a different approach toward buying if they were going through the process again. The personal finance website polled 2,241 adults in January. "One thing I'd advise — and no buyer really follows it — is to shop around and do more research not just for your loan but for the home," said Tim Manni, who covers mortgages at NerdWallet. Younger homeowners — millennials and Gen Xers — expressed the most buyer's remorse after closing on a new dwelling. About 3 in 5 of these participants said they had regrets throughout the shopping and mortgage process. What they lament the most is that they should

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/3/1/2667

Spring Housing Already Overheating; Highest Appreciation in 30 Months; Rates Move Up

The spring housing market started early this year, not because of higher-than-average temperatures but because of hotter-than-average demand and overheating home prices. This year may be the starkest example of a post-recession reality that is redefining housing as we know it. "This spring housing market is shaping up to be another doozy for homebuyers," said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist for home-listing website Trulia. "Housing affordability is the key to helping break yet another year of gridlocked inventory, but all signs are showing that homes this spring will be much less affordable than last year." Affordability is being hit on several fronts: The foreclosure crisis is over, but it left behind an entirely new landscape for potential buyers. Entry-level homes are scarce because investors

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/2/28/2665

Inventory Stifling Best Housing Demand in Years; Rates Rise; Property Tax Estimates Need Improvement

Tight inventories are again being blamed for a downturn in home sales, this time January's ones. The National Association of Realtor's® (NAR's) Pending Home Sale Index (PHSI) declined by 2.8 percent from December, reaching the lowest level in a year. The PHSI is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts for home purchases. Those contracts are generally expected to turn into completed sales in about 60 days. The January PHSI dipped to 106.4 from an upwardly revised 109.5 in December. The December index had originally been reported at 109.0. The index remains 0.4 percent higher than it was in January 2016, but is at the lowest level since then. This index is beginning to exhibit the same kind of volatility that has marked new home sales in recent months. The index gained 1.6 percent

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/2/27/2663

Rates in Line With 2017 Lows; New Home Sales Rise Less Than Expected

Mortgage rates moved lower for 3rd straight day (and the 5th time in the past 6 days). That makes this the best winning streak of the year and it brings rates to the lowest levels of the year (matching February 8th and a few days in early January). From here, you'd have to go back to mid-November 2016 to see appreciably lower rates. All that having been said, the range over that time has been fairly narrow--4.125%-4.375% for top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate quotes. Naturally, today's average lender is at 4.125% although some of the more aggressive lenders are indeed down to 4.0%. No matter the rate quoted, the important point is that today's rates are noticeably lower than yesterday's. Even if the NOTE rate is the same, the upfront costs should be lower (thus making for a lower EFFECTIVE

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/2/24/2659