Spring Housing Already Overheating; Highest Appreciation in 30 Months; Rates Move Up

The spring housing market started early this year, not because of higher-than-average temperatures but because of hotter-than-average demand and overheating home prices. This year may be the starkest example of a post-recession reality that is redefining housing as we know it. "This spring housing market is shaping up to be another doozy for homebuyers," said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist for home-listing website Trulia. "Housing affordability is the key to helping break yet another year of gridlocked inventory, but all signs are showing that homes this spring will be much less affordable than last year." Affordability is being hit on several fronts: The foreclosure crisis is over, but it left behind an entirely new landscape for potential buyers. Entry-level homes are scarce because investors

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/2/28/2665

Inventory Stifling Best Housing Demand in Years; Rates Rise; Property Tax Estimates Need Improvement

Tight inventories are again being blamed for a downturn in home sales, this time January's ones. The National Association of Realtor's® (NAR's) Pending Home Sale Index (PHSI) declined by 2.8 percent from December, reaching the lowest level in a year. The PHSI is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts for home purchases. Those contracts are generally expected to turn into completed sales in about 60 days. The January PHSI dipped to 106.4 from an upwardly revised 109.5 in December. The December index had originally been reported at 109.0. The index remains 0.4 percent higher than it was in January 2016, but is at the lowest level since then. This index is beginning to exhibit the same kind of volatility that has marked new home sales in recent months. The index gained 1.6 percent

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/2/27/2663

Rates in Line With 2017 Lows; New Home Sales Rise Less Than Expected

Mortgage rates moved lower for 3rd straight day (and the 5th time in the past 6 days). That makes this the best winning streak of the year and it brings rates to the lowest levels of the year (matching February 8th and a few days in early January). From here, you'd have to go back to mid-November 2016 to see appreciably lower rates. All that having been said, the range over that time has been fairly narrow--4.125%-4.375% for top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate quotes. Naturally, today's average lender is at 4.125% although some of the more aggressive lenders are indeed down to 4.0%. No matter the rate quoted, the important point is that today's rates are noticeably lower than yesterday's. Even if the NOTE rate is the same, the upfront costs should be lower (thus making for a lower EFFECTIVE

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/2/24/2659

Inventories Driving Prices; Fannie's Blackstone Blowback; Rates at 2-Week Lows; What Happened to Black Homeownership?

Home prices, as measured by the Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA's) Housing Price Index (HPI), rose even faster on an annual basis in December than they had earlier in the fall. The year-over-year gain was 6.2 percent, up from 6.1 percent in the 12 months ended in November, and 6.0 percent in October. FHFA's HPI report, which this month also in included fourth quarter data, is based on purchase prices of homes with mortgages backed by or sold to one of the two GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. On a quarterly basis, the HPI was up 1.5 percent compared to the third quarter. The monthly change from November to December was 0.4 percent, down from a 0.5 percent gain from October to November. "Although interest rates rose sharply during the fourth quarter, our data show no signs of a home price

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/2/23/2657

Big Banks Could Get Back in Mortgage Market; Rates Inch Higher; Implications of Aging-in-Place for Housing

For the past six years, there has been a quiet revolution in the mortgage market: Big banks like JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) , Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and Citibank (NYSE: C) have moved out and nonbank lenders such as Quicken, loanDepot and Caliber Home Loans have moved in — in a big way. The revolution went largely unchallenged, but that may be about to change if the Trump administration removes regulations on the big banks and stops sending bad loans back to the banks for repayment. Deregulation would open the door for big banks to move back in. Paul Miller, a banking analyst at FBR Capital Markets, said he believes big banks will return to the market, "but they will need solid protections on reps and warrants" — the financial due diligence that's done on both sides of the transaction

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/2/21/2653

Rates Finally Bounce; Permits Reapproaching Highs; Got The Right Homeowners' Insurance?

After spending the past 5 business days moving higher, mortgage rates finally found their footing today. The improvement came in phases, with today's first round of rate sheets only marginally better than yesterday's. Bond markets (which underlie rate movement) surged into stronger territory around 11am as investors pared risk during Trump's press conference. This allowed most lenders to "reprice," meaning they send out revised rate sheets with better terms. From the highest levels in nearly 3 weeks yesterday, today's rates ultimately fell to the lowest levels of the week by the afternoon. 4.25% remains the most prevalent conventional 30yr fixed rate on top tier scenarios, although several lenders moved back down to 4.125%. That means most borrowers will see today's improvements in the form

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/2/16/2647

Rates Near 3-Week Highs; Builders Say Buyer Traffic Wanes; ARM Origination Picking Up

Mortgage rates rose for the 5th day in a row following a higher reading in this morning's inflation data and an upbeat Retail Sales report. In general, stronger economic data and higher inflation motivate investors to move money out of the bond market. As demand for bonds falls, bond prices move lower and rates move higher. Today's increase brings mortgage rates close to their highest level in 3 weeks . You'd have to go back to January 25th to see worse. That said, "worse" is a relative term. Both then and now, a top tier scenario would result in a conventional 30yr fixed rate of 4.25%. Today's upfront costs would be just slightly lower. Only a few lenders remain at 4.125% on comparable scenarios and several have moved up to 4.375%. Loan Originator Perspective Bond markets lost further ground

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/2/15/2645

Rates' Losing Streak Continues; Distress Measures Improve Rapidly; Realtors: It's a Dog's World

Mortgage rates moved higher for the 4th straight day today, following Fed Chair Janet Yellen's congressional testimony. It wasn't that Yellen's speech or Q&A contained any major surprises. Rather, bond markets (which dictate rates) were simply looking for some indication of "sooner vs later" with respect to the Fed's next rate hike. Her comments were generally more in line with "sooner." Bond markets responded by quickly trading rates to higher levels, resulting in multiple "negative reprices" for mortgage lenders this morning. Bonds calmed down in the afternoon, and ended up clawing back roughly half of the morning's losses by the end of the day. Many lenders were consequently able to offer "positive reprices"--bringing rate sheets part of the way back to yesterday's levels. Despite the

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/2/14/2643

Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher; Yellen Facing a Whole New World Tomorrow

Mortgage rates stood at their lowest levels in more than 2 months as of last Wednesday, but have since moved higher for 3 straight days . This leaves them roughly in the middle of their recent range--seemingly ready to move in either direction depending on this week's motivation. Investors will be looking for that motivation first and foremost from Fed Chair Yellen's congressional testimony , which begins tomorrow morning and continues on Wednesday morning. Although not an official Fed policy statement, these testimonies often serve as a venue for the Fed Chair to confirm, deny, or tweak prevailing policy expectations. In other words, congress will almost certainly press Yellen for clarity on the Fed's rate hike outlook and other potential policy changes. Even though she would technically be

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/2/13/2641

Appraisal Trends and Updates; Rates Remain Lower vs Last Week

Mortgage rates continued higher today, bringing them back in line with Monday's levels. Part of the rise was due to weaker trading levels in bond markets. Just as important is the fact that many lenders didn't raise rates yesterday afternoon as the bond weakness began (weaker bond markets imply higher rates). In other words, unless bond markets improved overnight, this morning's rates were already destined to be a bit higher than yesterday's. Even though today's increase was far more substantial than yesterday's, it leaves rates at levels that are still slightly better compared to last Friday. Many lenders continue to offer 4.125% on top tier conventional 30yr fixed scenarios, though several have moved back up to 4.25% with today's weakness. Loan Originator Perspective With no major data until

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/2/10/2637

Winning Streak Ends For Rates: Spring House-Hunting Warning; More Price Peaks

Mortgage rates finally moved higher after three straight days of solid improvement. If it's any consolation, today's rise wasn't on par with even one of the past 3 days of gains, although that could change by tomorrow morning. Weakness in the bond market primarily affected US Treasuries today, as opposed to the mortgage-backed-securities that dictate mortgage rates. That allowed many lenders to make it through the day without recalling rate sheets and "repricing" for the worse. If trading levels in bond markets don't change between now and tomorrow, it's likely that several lenders will be offering slightly higher rates in the morning. 4.125% remains the most common conventional 30yr fixed quote for top tier scenarios. It would take a more substantial market movement to get the average lender

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/2/9/2635

Rates Much Lower This Week; Buyer Sentiment Brightens; Homeownership Goes Both Ways; Refi Slump

Mortgage rates fell for the third straight day today. Each day has seen moderate improvement. Taken together, they add up to a strong move lower from last week's levels (which were roughly in the lower-middle of the post-election range). The result is that some lenders are at or near their lowest rates in nearly 3 MONTHS (yesterday it was 3 WEEKS). The average lender has only had 3 days during that time where rates were any better. There are plenty of opinions about what's behind this week's falling rates ranging from politics to last week's jobs report causing a shift in Fed rate hike expectations. All that matters is that investors have shifted to a more risk-averse stance resulting in better demand for less risky assets like bonds. Higher demand for bonds means lower rates. 4.125% remains

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/2/8/2633

Rates in Line With 3-Week Lows; Home Prices Running Over 7% Annually; Flagstar Buying Some of Stearns

Mortgage rates moved lower again today as investors remained cautious amid political uncertainty at home and abroad. Stocks began the day higher but lost ground throughout the day--indirectly helping rates. That's not to suggest mortgage rates routinely take cues from stocks. Rather, slumping stocks and falling rates speak to the same underlying trends. Caution, fear, and the like, tend to increase demand for less risky assets like bonds. As demand for bonds increases (sometimes, at the expense of stocks--like today), rates fall. In and of itself, today's improvement was mild to moderate. But taken together with yesterday, the gains were more meaningful as they brought a majority of lenders back to quoting 30yr fixed rates of 4.125% on top tier scenarios. The transition from 4.25% is still

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/2/7/2631

Connection Between Tax Refunds and Mortgage Delinquencies; Rates Fall to 2-Week Lows

Apparently we aren't all procrastinators. Black Knight Financial Services looked at Internal Revenue Service (IRS) filing statistics and how they relate to loan level mortgage performance data for its current edition of Mortgage Monitor and found that 40 percent of tax filers are in and done by the first week in March. In fact, half of that number or one in five have finished and filed their returns within the first two weeks of tax season. The company says incentive plays a role in this diligence as Americans who file early are more likely to be expecting a refund. On average, they also receive a larger refund than those who file later. The average refund for those filing on or before February 5 th was $3,400, more than 35 percent higher than the refund for those filing in early April and

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/2/6/2629

Mixed Day Leaves Rates Slightly Higher; Thoughts on Fannie's Rental-to-MBS Pilot Program

Mortgage rates were noticeably lower this morning as bond markets responded favorably to the important jobs report. While the headline job growth was stronger than expected (typically bad for rates), wages came in much lower than expected and were revised lower for the previous report as well. That was enough for most lenders to offer lower rates with today's first set of rate sheets. Bond markets (which underlie rate movement) stayed strong throughout the morning. Things changed in the afternoon when a member of the Fed (Williams) said the Fed may hike in March. Perhaps even more damaging was Williams' mention of the Fed moving closer to ending its policy of reinvesting the interest it earns on its bond portfolio. Those reinvestments are worth a lot in terms of low rates. Bonds then lost everything

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/2/3/2625

Mortgage Rates Edge Lower Ahead of Jobs Report; Good News For Lenders in RFC Case

Mortgage rates fell modestly today, but not enough to make it back to the lows seen earlier this week. 4.25% is still the most prevalent 30yr fixed rate on top tier scenarios, meaning day-to-day movement has been limited to upfront costs (sometimes referred to as "points," depending on the source of information). Since last Friday, the range has been exceptionally narrow leading up to tomorrow's Employment Situation (the big "jobs report"). This is the most important scheduled economic report each month. While its impact can vary, it always has tremendous potential to move markets in either direction. Given that today's rates are slightly lower than the average over the past few weeks, and the trend has been toward slightly higher rates during that time, a more cautious strategy makes good

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/2/2/2623

CFPB Charges Prospect; Rates Higher Despite Help From Fed; Freddie Housing Outlook

Prospect Mortgage, a Sherman Oaks, California based lender has been cited by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) for paying illegal kickbacks for mortgage business referrals . Two real estate brokers and a mortgage servicer were accused of taking those kickbacks. CFPB said Prospect is one of the largest independent retail mortgage lenders in the country with nearly 100 branches nationwide, offering a range of mortgages to consumers, including conventional, FHA, and VA loans. Also named in the several actions taken were two real estate brokers, RGC Services, Inc., (doing business as ReMax Gold Coast), based in Ventura, California, and Willamette Legacy, LLC, (doing business as Keller Williams Mid-Willamette), based in Corvallis, Oregon, and Planet Home Lending, LLC, a mortgage servicer

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/newsletter/2017/2/1/2621